Operators are always shocked by this:

We don't use dynamic pricing tools.

No matter the tool, we've been disappointed:

• Prices are too low in high season
• Prices are too high, too far out in low season
• Comp sets are bad (or non-existent)

And trust me... We've tried them all.

But after $20M+ in direct booking revenue and many stories like the one I'll share today, we've come one conclusion:

There's massive edge in creating your own custom pricing strategy.

So today, I'm going to show you the first three numbers you should find in order to start your custom pricing strategy.

But before we dive into the numbers, let’s talk about where a lot of operators trip up.

THE WRONG WAY

Most hospitality operators price one of two ways:

• Set a rate based on their competitors and hold it, hoping the right guests find you
• React to an empty calendar by dropping the price until someone books

But both ways are hurting your revenue.

Why?

They have no internal anchor. No way to know whether the move they’re making is right or wrong for their property.

This matters more than most operators realize because:

A date’s value isn’t driven by time–it’s driven by supply.

Specifically, it’s driven by how many comparable properties still have that date open on their calendar.

For example:

A weekend in Austin in early October is worth roughly the same on day 342 before check-in as it is on day 300. Almost nothing has changed.

But if half the competing properties in your area sell out over the next few weeks, then that weekend's value jumps.

That’s because the market shifted, but time barely moved.

The opposite happens if 10,000 comparable units go live near your property. Then your date loses value, regardless of how far out it is.

Without their own numbers, operators can’t read any of this so they just follow the herd.

We do things different.

For example, inside the upcoming Modern Hospitality Accelerator cohort, we're going to help you establish three numbers for every date on your calendar so you have an internal anchor.

Once you have those, you can look at what's happening in the market and make decisions with precision and confidence.

These numbers will tell you:

• What your floor is
• What the expected value of the day is
• What dates like this one are actually booking at

Let me show you how to find your numbers...

THE PLAY

The three numbers are:

1. Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)
2. Expected Value (EV)
3. True Booking Date Value (TBDV)

When you understand what these numbers do and how to use them in your revenue management system, you start making every pricing decision with facts (not feelings):

1. BATNA: Your floor.

BATNA stands for Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.

(It's a fancy way of saying the lowest price you’d ever accept for hosting a guest or what else you could realistically get for that date if you waited.)

Your BATNA is calculated based on your:

• Actual costs
• The specific time of year
• Property’s minimum acceptable performance

It may or may not be the same every day of the year.

A quick example:

Why are the BATNAs so different?

If it costs you $150 to clean and $40 per night in operating costs, your actual costs are $190.

In a low season, where your minimum acceptable performance is a lot lower because any dollar is better than zero, your BATNA might be much closer to that.

But in a high season, your BATNA would go up significantly because you’re 100% confident you’d book out at a much higher rate due to seasonality.

The BATNA is your for-sure number.

The amount you’re guaranteed if you take the deal right now. Once you know it, you never have to panic about pricing. You have a floor.

2. Expected Value: What a night is actually worth.

Expected Value (EV) is the revenue you actually expect per available night.

(Note: This will change with time and with your market)

Your EV includes the nights nobody books. Most operators don’t include the empty nights, but it’s key to a smart pricing system.

Here’s how to think about it:

You price a Saturday at $1,200

Based on your market, you book it 70% of the time and leave it empty 30% of the time

Your EV is not $1,200.

It is…

($1,200 × 70%) + ($0 × 30%) = $840 EV

Because EV always includes the cost of zero-booking days, it’s almost always lower than the price you actually charge when you do get a booking.

EV is a planning number, not a listing price.

It tells you whether your pricing behavior is generating the most revenue per available night, or just making you feel good about the rate on the nights you happen to book.

3. True Booking Date Value: What this date actually books at.

True Booking Date Value (TBDV) answers the question EV doesn’t:

When this date does book, what does it actually book at?

It’s the median price across all successful bookings for dates like this one.

The “what’s working in my market right now” number.

Because EV factors in empty nights and TBDV doesn’t, EV is always lower than TBDV.

4. How the three numbers work together:

In the high season, all three compress together.

In the slow season, they spread far apart.

Look at the slow row.

• Your floor is $89.
• Average revenue across every available night is $155.
• But when those nights do book, they book at $240.

That spread is where most operators lose money.

They will often do one of two things:

Panic Pricing: Dropping from EV ($155) all the way to BATNA ($89) out of anxiety — giving away $66/night on every night that would have booked anyway at the higher rate

Holding too high: staying at $240, accepting 30-40% booking rate, when Pink Line pricing at $155-$165 would generate near-95% occupancy and a better actual EV

They're charging based on other properties’ rates and ignoring how often the night actually goes empty.

THE PROOF

Here's a before/after of what it looks like to know your numbers:

Spoon Mountain is a three-cabin property in the Texas Hill Country.

In 2022, before we onboarded them, the property ran on instinct. Good months were good, slow months were slow, and nobody had a clear reason why.

The numbers reflected it.

• The 3 cabins generated $26k in their best month of 2022 (July).
• They generated $11k in their slowest month (January).

The spread between slow and peak is only 2.3x.

Full year 2022: Roughly $210k.

We onboarded them in May 2023.

In 2025, their revenue (with the same three cabins) looked like this:

• $50k in their best month of 2025 (June).
• $17k in their lowest month of 2025 (January).

The spread between slow and peak is now nearly 3x.

Full year 2025: $408k (up 94% from 2022).

The peak months nearly doubled.

The slow months grew by 64% .

And the spread between seasons widened—not because demand changed, but because the pricing finally matched what each tier of dates was actually worth.

This is what it looks like when you have a real pricing strategy.

Of course, pricing isn't the only lever—content and direct bookings contributed to this growth, too.

But pricing is the foundation.

Better strategy, better analysis, and better execution (and not just using off-the-shelf dynamic pricing software).

THE TAKEAWAY

Ben Wolff

Founder, Oasi & Modern Hospitality Accelerator